Recently, the United States proposed a so-called "rare earth for aid" mineral cooperation agreement worth $500 billion to Ukraine. Previously, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the agreement lacks "security guarantees" for Ukraine, so he did not allow it to be signed. On February 22nd, local time, Ukrainian media reported that the Ukrainian side has already received the new version of the mineral resources agreement text proposed by the United States, and the United States and Ukraine will establish a commercial fund, with the United States owning 100% of the ownership.
However, recent news suggests that Ukraine doesn't have a large amount of rare earth, "only scorched earth".
Bloomberg News published a column by Javier Blas, an energy and commodities industry writer, on the 19th. In the article, Blas put forward different views on Ukraine's rare earth mineral resources, arguing that Ukraine does not have a large amount of rare earth, "only scorched earth".
Before the 2024 US presidential election, the Ukrainian government formulated a "victory plan", hoping to convince the US that Ukraine can win in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and further lock in the US's long-term support for Ukraine. This "victory plan" includes cooperation between Ukraine and the US on rare earth and other mineral resources.
Recently, Zelensky said that Ukraine's mineral resources are of great value, so we need to protect these resources. If the US side wants to make a deal, then let's make a deal, "we are supportive".
Javier Blas wrote in his article that the hype about Ukraine's rare earth mines started with the Ukrainians themselves, but they soon lost control of the narrative. Since the beginning of February this year, US President Trump has been frequently promoting relevant agreements for Ukraine to exchange mineral resources for continued US aid to Ukraine.
British media reported that the value of Ukraine's minerals is estimated to be an astounding $11.5 trillion. Among the 34 critical minerals identified by the European Union, Ukraine has 24 of them. Ukraine claims to have 5% of the world's critical mineral deposits, even though the country only accounts for 0.4% of the Earth's land area. It also has 500,000 tons of lithium minerals, which are key components of electric vehicle batteries. Ukraine has 20% of the world's graphite, which is a crucial material for nuclear power generation.
However, according to Javier Blas's article, even the authoritative U.S. Geological Survey has never listed Ukraine as a "country with rare earth reserves", and it is also not found in other databases commonly used in the mining industry. Public intelligence shows that Ukraine has no significant rare earth deposits except for a small amount of scandium. Blas said that this is like the U.S. Pentagon describing Afghanistan as "the Saudi Arabia of lithium" in 2010, claiming to have found undeveloped mineral deposits worth $1 trillion. As a result, everyone now knows that this is purely a fantasy.
Blass also pointed out that the total value of all rare earth production worldwide is only about $15 billion per year. Even if Ukraine could produce 20% of the world's rare earth, worth about $3 billion per year, it would be absurd to reach the $500 billion target proposed by Trump. Moreover, even if the US government wanted not only rare earth mines but also other mineral resources in Ukraine, such as iron ore and coal, the problem is that many of these mineral resources are under the control of Russia, and most of them do not have strategic importance and are not worth $500 billion.
