A Political Earthquake Brewing
With Germany’s federal election just days away (February 23, 2025), polls reveal a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. The center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), led by Friedrich Merz, have surged to 30% support nationwide—a remarkable rebound from their historic low of 24.1% in 2021. Meanwhile, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to win five eastern states, including Thuringia, as frustration with the ruling "Ampel" coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) fuels political fragmentation. This article unpacks the latest data, regional divides, and potential coalition nightmares ahead.
1. CDU/CSU Revival: Merz Capitalizes on Ampel Coalition’s Struggles
The CDU/CSU’s resurgence marks a stark reversal from its post-Merkel slump. According to a February 13, 2025, Statista poll, 30% of voters now back the party—up 6 points from 2021. Analysts attribute this to:
- Voter fatigue with the Ampel coalition: Rising inflation, energy crises, and infighting have eroded trust in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD-led government.
- Merz’s “stability” messaging: The CDU leader has framed himself as a return to Merkel-era pragmatism, contrasting with Scholz’s perceived indecisiveness.
- Eastern state gains: The CDU leads polls in 10 of 16 federal states, including traditional strongholds like Bavaria (39%) and Baden-Württemberg (33%).
2. AfD’s Eastern Stronghold: 29% in Brandenburg, But Coalition Pariah Status
The AfD is projected to win the largest vote share in five eastern states:
- Thuringia: 31%
- Brandenburg: 29%
- Saxony-Anhalt: 28%
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: 25%
- Saxony: 24%
Despite this regional strength, the AfD remains isolated nationally. All major parties, including the CDU, refuse to collaborate with them due to extremist ties. "The AfD’s gains reflect protest votes against migration policies and economic anxiety, not mainstream acceptance," says Berlin-based political analyst Clara Becker.
3. Coalition Calculus: CDU Needs SPD or Greens—But at What Cost?
Current seat projections (Statista, February 10) paint a fractured parliament:
- CDU/CSU: 207 seats
- AfD: 142 seats
- SPD: 109 seats
- Greens: 95 seats
To form a government, the CDU would need a coalition with either the SPD or Greens. However, both scenarios face hurdles:
- CDU-SPD “Grand Coalition”: Unpopular due to its association with past stagnation.
- CDU-Greens alliance: Clashes over climate policies and EU reforms could derail negotiations.
“Merz’s best bet is a ‘Jamaica coalition’ with the Greens and FDP, but that’s mathematically unlikely,” notes Der Spiegel.
4. Regional Splits: West vs. East Divide Deepens
The polls underscore Germany’s widening regional rift:
- West: CDU dominates wealthy states like Bavaria (39%) and Hesse (32%), where voters prioritize economic stability.
- East: AfD’s anti-immigrant, anti-EU rhetoric resonates in post-industrial regions grappling with unemployment. In Thuringia, 31% back the AfD—nearly double the CDU’s 17%.
This divide complicates policymaking, with eastern states likely to resist federal climate mandates and EU integration.
5. Voter Sentiment: Dissatisfaction Drives Volatility
A February 2025 Forsa survey reveals key voter concerns:
- Economy: 42% (inflation, industrial slowdown)
- Migration: 28%
- Climate: 18%
Dissatisfaction with the Ampel coalition spans demographics:
- Young voters: Disillusioned by slow climate action.
- Working class: Blame SPD for energy price hikes.
- Rural conservatives: View AfD as the only anti-establishment option.
6. International Implications: A More Eurosceptic Germany?
The rise of AfD and CDU’s rightward tilt could reshape Germany’s EU role:
- AfD influence: Push for reduced EU integration, national veto powers.
- CDU stance: Merz supports EU reforms but opposes “federalist overreach.”
French President Macron recently warned, “Germany’s election could decide whether Europe moves toward unity or fragmentation.”
An Unpredictable Finish
With days remaining, the 2025 German election remains highly fluid. While the CDU/CSU holds a lead, its path to power hinges on messy coalition talks—and the AfD’s surge ensures far-right voices will shape debates for years. One certainty: the Ampel era is ending, but what comes next is anyone’s guess.
